A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. Figure 4. I wish they would shut up with their predictions, they are unsettling given what we lived through but at the end of the day they are nothing more than a mathematical equation. Scientists, working as part of Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8), have marked the end of their first two years of work planning and preparing for a severe magnitude eight earthquakes. Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if New Zealand’s most dangerous fault line ruptures, and there’s evidence the country is due for another big one. Need a new fix. “Within 500kms” reaches as far up the North Island as Hamilton. The Alpine Fault ruptures in a massive earthquake every 300 years, on average, and the last big one was in 1717. Would be surprised if it set several faults off here – the Cook & Welly are riddled with them. ", Copyright © 2020 MediaWorks TV - All Rights Reserved, By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Access and Privacy Policy. 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes The Alpine Fault. The last time this happened was 301 years ago. Yess Dave science is a hoax. https://yournz.org/2018/05/17/big-alpine-fault-rupture-due-in-the-next-century-or-two/. Erosion rates in the hanging wall of the Alpine Fault are high, keeping pace with rock uplift over time frames of 10⁴–10⁶ years. The big landslide under the viaduct at Arthurs Pass came down 2000 years ago. "The surprises and insights we gained from witnessing a major surface-rupturing earthquake in modern times have made us even more motivated to compile and present current research on the Alpine Fault. When the Eastern face fell away from Mt Cook the underlying rock was described a “weetbix”. Alpine Fault quake expected NZASE article 2019 Scientists estimate a 30 percent likelihood in the next 50 years of a magnitude 8 or higher (M8+) earth- quake along 400km of the Alpine Fault, a strength about three times greater than the 7.8 Kaikoura quake in 2016. Quakes were rippling up & down the Lower NI & Upper SI, back & forth – epicentred all over the show. Climbed Avalanche Peak track above Arthurs Pass a decade or two ago. Crux has published the media release below and a link to the full document but we recommend that you watch the introductory video first. This is a few years old but is a good look at plate tectonics in New Zealand: Dunedin is about as far as you can get in the South Island from the fault but when the big one strikes it is certain to be felt here (we feel larger Fiordland earthquakes as well as the bigger Christchurch quakes) and it is likely to have  major effects across the South Island, and also in the lower North Island. And being on the boundary of the Pacific and Australia tectonic plates, it will happen again. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. "Intense shaking caused numerous large landslides, forest damage, and long-term changes to drainage and sedimentation patterns in the Southern Alps, across the coastal plain, and offshore," researchers said on Tuesday. The Alpine Fault runs 400km up the South Island, along the western edge of the Southern Alps. The story is told instead by trees, sediments, and the landscape of the South Island's West Coast.". Why do people believe in a non-existent Abrahamic God? Share this. Ten years ago, scientists only had evidence for three separate quakes on the fault - now they have seven recorded at multiple sites along the fault, and 27 in individual stretches. Pretty well everywhere in NZ will feel it if there’s a large rupture I’ve read – & you can bet Welly will get whacked hard. Last year marked the 300th anniversary of the last time it ruptured, moving the south-eastern side about eight metres relative to the north-western side in a matter of seconds. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. An earthquake felt across the lower South Island over the weekend has reignited calls to prepare for the big Alpine Fault quake. 27th June 2019 - New Tourism Minister appointed in New Zealand Cabinet reshuffle. The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault . At the southern end of the Alpine Fault, Page et al. Geologists don’t appear to be spooked by Mr Ring’s predictions. It’s about 30 years past the ‘average’ period of time in which a major 7.8-8.0 quake occurs. "The timing of the disturbance that caused [a] decline [in growth] can be narrowed down to taking place after the 1716 growing season and before the end of the 1717 growing season - ie, the earthquake occurred early in the year 1717 AD.". Courtesy of New Zealand Geographic Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa. "Although Aotearoa New Zealand had been settled by Māori for about half a millennium when the earthquake occurred, oral histories of the event are rare. Project AF8 or Alpine Fault Magni... From: Christchurch City Libraries. In the News | Published: 11 September 2018 11 February 2019. From News Extras. Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … Extensive details are at Project Alpine Fault 8. Possibly one feature of our risk is that the Pacific plate is schist to greywache (further from the fault). The … Change ). ( Log Out /  Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. "There will be a similar earthquake soon... Whatever we can learn about this fault and how it moves is, to some extent, helping us understand and prepare for the next great earthquake.". That quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1, making it about three times stronger than the Kaikoura quake of 2016. Wouldn’t want to be below in a big earthquake. Date: 2018 Description: A magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault is predicted to happen during the lifetime of most New Zealanders alive today. The fault line along the South Island ruptures roughly every 300 years. georgina.mclean@rnz.co.nz. What if the big one however many years ago settled the thing for eons and took most of the pressure out ? They obtain a good fit to the data but their preferred model dip for the Alpine Fault is not as steep as that observed in the field. Lets just pretend scary things cant happen so Dave will not get frightened to much ….EH. Free speech for those who don't threaten free speech, Medicinal Cannabis, Links and Information, ‘Governments need more history graduates’. Journalists get bored with climate alarmism tertorism and asteroid catastrophes. Continuous chatter of … The 300-year anniversary of the last time the Alpine Fault ruptured has been marked with a special issue of the New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics. This image clearly shows the fault running up the West Coast, where the Australian plate dives under and drives up the Southern Alps which line along the rising edge of the Pacific Plate. … Geologically, this is a high probability. Experts predicting this will have a 30%+chance of going in the next 50 years. I know actually finding out about reality gives you RWNJ’s cognitive dissonance so I did not bother. One is short – days to weeks. Image: The Alpine fault runs to the east (left) of the snowcapped ridge of the South Island alps. Bugger being a train driver on the Midland line. Stuff has the latest information on this: Videos show devastating impact across South Island if Alpine Fault ruptures. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. ( Log Out /  Generally the fault has a simple straight trace, striking ca. The New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics has published a special issue on the Alpine Fault, which runs the length of the South Island. The research has important earthquake hazard implications nationally by providing a much longer record and therefore a more reliable forecast of when the next major earthquake will occur on the southern section of the Alpine Fault. No Dave if the sun goes quite we expect temperatures to keep increasing . The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. The Alpine Fault runs almost the entire length of the South Island. The first four videos are shorter, and the next four are more detailed and longer format. View large Download slide. 15 May 2018. Share on Twitter; Share on Facebook; Share via email; Share on Reddit; Share on Linked In ; Georgina McLean, Senior Digital Journalist. ( Log Out /  It is a dominant feature of the South Island. Source: 1 NEWS . The Alpine Fault has a long history of generating large earthquakes, with 27 previous earthquake events in … You are wasting your time Griff the whole thing is a massive hoax, I have dumped my solar and stocks and investing in thermals and stockpiling vitamin D tablets and looking forward to ice skating across the Thames like my ancestors. Submitted August 15, 2018, SCEC Contribution #8809, 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #038 New Zealand’s Alpine Fault is perhaps the world’s best example of a relatively simple, hypermature, active continental plate boundary transform. 4. The earthquake will last for about two minutes. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. Credits: Newshub. The videos are intended to both warn and educate our community about the overdue Alpine Fault earthquake which is expected to be in the magnitude 8 range. , just under every 300 years took most of the DFDP-2B drilling revealed high adjacent... 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